- 2024-01-31T00:00:00
- Company Research
- GVR announced Q4 2023 results with revenue of VND7.6tn (USD312mn; -17% YoY and +23% QoQ) and NPAT-MI of VND1.2tn (USD48mn; +19% YoY and +3.7x QoQ). GPM improved to 21.1% in Q4 2023 from 19.9% in Q3 2023 due to rubber’s selling price and gross margin recovery.
- In 2023, GVR’s revenue declined 13% YoY to VND22.1tn (USD909mn), while its NPAT-MI fell 33% YoY to VND2.6tn (USD106mn), completing 98% of our forecast. Pending a fuller review, we anticipate no significant changes to our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast of VND3.1tn (USD129mn; +21% YoY).
- Rubber latex revenue declined 7% YoY to VND16.8tn (USD692mn) in 2023, accounting for 76% of total revenue. Meanwhile, the segment’s GPM was 20.8% in 2023 vs 26.2% in 2022 and our forecast of 21.8%. Although GVR has not released a breakdown of its sales volume and average selling price (ASP), we believe the decline in revenue was mainly driven by a lower ASP YoY as Vietnam’s rubber export ASP was down 12.7% YoY in 2023 to ~USD1,350/ton. China continues to be the main driver for Vietnam and GVR’s rubber exports as the country accounted for 79% of Vietnam’s rubber export in 2023 with a 6.6% increase in volume but down 4.8% in value.
- Net income from affiliates (mainly from GVR’s major wood affiliate MDF VRG Dongwha) was negative VND201bn (USD8.3mn) in 2023 compared to the 2022 profit of VND204bn (USD8.3mn) and our forecast of VND244bn (USD10mn) in loss. The slowdown in consumption of wood and wooden products was the main reason in declining profit.
- Net other income in 2023, which accounted for 33% of GVR’s PBT, was VND1.4tn (USD57mn; +4% YoY), of which GVR recognized VND689bn (USD28mn) of income from tree liquidation and VND561bn (USD23mn) from compensation (mainly from VSIP III).
GVR’s 2023 results
VND bn | Q4 2022 | Q4 2023 | YoY | 2022 | 2023 | YoY | 2023F | 2023 as % of 2023F |
Net revenue | 9,119 | 7,591 | -17% | 25,421 | 22,080 | -13% | 22,490 | 98% |
| 7,572 | 6,065 | -20% | 18,113 | 16,822 | -7% | 17,197 | 98% |
| -37 | 131 | N.M. | 790 | 428 | -46% | 395 | 108% |
| 833 | 660 | -21% | 3,930 | 2,342 | -40% | 2,359 | 99% |
| 239 | 226 | -6% | 851 | 814 | -4% | 868 | 94% |
| 511 | 508 | -1% | 1,736 | 1,674 | -4% | 1,671 | 100% |
Gross profit | 1,868 | 1,603 | -14% | 6,390 | 4,749 | -26% | 4,982 | 95% |
SG&A expenses | -785 | -885 | 13% | -2,349 | -2,460 | 5% | -2,137 | 115% |
EBIT | 1,084 | 718 | -34% | 4,041 | 2,290 | -43% | 2,846 | 80% |
Financial income | 245 | 351 | 43% | 894 | 1,186 | 33% | 1,024 | 116% |
Financial expense | -226 | -131 | -42% | -694 | -530 | -24% | -561 | 95% |
Net income from affiliates | 34 | 85 | 154% | 204 | -201 | N.M. | -244 | 82% |
Net other income | 554 | 649 | 17% | 1,323 | 1,380 | 4% | 950 | 145% |
PBT | 1,690 | 1,672 | -1% | 5,768 | 4,124 | -29% | 4,015 | 103% |
NPAT-MI | 975 | 1,164 | 19% | 3,882 | 2,585 | -33% | 2,634 | 98% |
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GPM | 20.5% | 21.1% |
| 25.1% | 21.5% |
| 22.2% |
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OPM | 11.9% | 9.5% |
| 15.9% | 10.4% |
| 12.7% |
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NPM | 10.7% | 15.3% |
| 15.3% | 11.7% |
| 11.7% |
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Source: GVR, Vietcap forecast (last updated January 3, 2024)
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