GMD – Strong Q3 performance led by ports; logistics segment records gross loss - Earnings Flash
  • 2024-10-29T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • GMD announced its 9M 2024 results with net revenue of VND3.4tn (USD136.8mn; +22% YoY; 83% of our 2024F forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND1.2tn (USD49mn; -42% YoY; 85% of our 2024F forecast). Excluding the financial gains from divestments, 9M core NPAT-MI reached VND891bn (USD35.6mn; +40% YoY; 78% of our 2024F forecast). In Q3 2024, net revenue was VND1.3tn (USD50.6mn; +10% QoQ, +27% YoY) and NPAT-MI was VND335bn (USD13.4mn; +1% QoQ, +32% YoY). 

  • 9M 2024 core NPAT-MI tracked slightly ahead of our expectation, fulfilling 78% of our full-year 2024F forecast, mainly led by the port segment’s stronger-than-expected performance. 9M consolidated revenue and gross profit of the port segment (which now mainly reflects Nam Dinh Vu’s performance after the divestment of the Nam Hai Dinh Vu and Nam Hai ports) fulfills 88% and 93% of our respective 2024F forecasts. Additionally, Gemalink’s 9M net profit fulfills 97% of our 2024F forecast.  

  • Overall, we see upside potential to our 2024F core NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review. 

Segment performance: 

  • Ports: GMD’s Q3 consolidated port revenue grew 11% QoQ and 40% YoY to VND1.1tn (USD43.8mn), leading to 9M port revenue surging 38% YoY and fulfilling 88% of our full-year forecast, ahead of our expectation. The segment’s GPM continued expanding, to 46.0% from 44.4% in Q2 2024 and 43.8% in Q1 2024. 

  • Gemalink: We estimate that Gemalink reported Q3 2024 net profit of VND234bn (USD9.4mn; +41% QoQ), bringing 9M net profit to VND473bn (USD18.9mn), fulfilling 97% of our 2024F forecast. Q3 net profit was the fourth consecutive profitable quarter for Gemalink after four quarters of losses during Q4 2022 – Q3 2023, and also the strongest quarterly level seen since Q1 2022. We attribute the deep-sea port’s strong performance to (1) strong QoQ and YoY throughput recovery, and (2) Gemalink being able to apply tariff rates higher than the new higher floor rates set by Circular 39 due to its strong competitive advantage in the Cai Mep Thi Vai area. However, we note that earnings upside for Gemalink might be limited, as the port is approaching full capacity, with a utilization rate of 110% for 2024F. 

  • Logistics: This segment reported weak results, with Q3 2024 revenue of VND169bn (USD6.8mn; +2% QoQ, -23% YoY) and a VND1bn loss at gross-profit level (GPM of -0.8%) as COGS surged 79% QoQ. For 9M 2024, revenue and gross profit trail our forecasts, at VND497bn (USD19.9mn; -28% YoY; 63% of our 2024F forecast) and VND146bn (USD5.8mn; -62% YoY; 36% of our 2024F forecast), respectively. 

GMD’s 9M 2024 results 

VNDbn 

Q3 2023 

Q2 2024 

Q3 2024 

QoQ 

YoY 

9M 2023 

9M 2024 

YoY 

2024F 

9M as % of 2024F 

Revenue 

998 

1,151 

1,264 

10% 

27% 

2,812 

3,421 

22% 

4,106 

83% 

- Port 

780 

985 

1,095 

11% 

40% 

2,118 

2,924 

38% 

3,320 

88% 

- Logistics 

218 

165 

169 

2% 

-23% 

694 

497 

-28% 

786 

63% 

Gross profit 

465 

511 

581 

14% 

25% 

1,322 

1,533 

16% 

1,895 

81% 

- Port 

363 

440 

583 

32% 

61% 

969 

1,387 

43% 

1,494 

93% 

- Logistics 

131 

71 

-1 

-103% 

-101% 

382 

146 

-62% 

401 

36% 

SG&A expenses 

-102 

-214 

-182 

-15% 

79% 

-383 

-546 

43% 

-669 

82% 

EBIT 

363 

296 

399 

35% 

10% 

939 

987 

5% 

1,226 

81% 

Financial income 

33 

30 

-85% 

-86% 

1,917 

388 

-80% 

426 

91% 

Financial expense 

-51 

-46 

-50 

8% 

-3% 

-122 

-134 

10% 

-153 

88% 

Net income from affiliates 

52 

183 

222 

21% 

325% 

131 

503 

283% 

592 

85% 

Others 

56 

-75 

N.M. 

N.M. 

18 

-15 

N.M. 

-21 

75% 

PBT 

398 

520 

501 

-4% 

26% 

2,884 

1,728 

-40% 

2,071 

83% 

NPAT 

338 

445 

448 

1% 

32% 

2,305 

1,549 

-33% 

1,856 

83% 

MI 

84 

115 

113 

-1% 

34% 

202 

325 

61% 

411 

79% 

NPAT-MI 

254 

330 

335 

1% 

32% 

2,103 

1,225 

-42% 

1,445 

85% 

Core NPAT-MI* 

254 

330 

335 

1% 

32% 

635 

891 

40% 

1,146 

78% 

GPM 

46.6% 

44.4% 

46.0% 

 

 

47.0% 

44.8% 

 

46.1% 

 

- Port 

46.5% 

44.7% 

53.2% 

 

 

45.7% 

47.4% 

 

45.0% 

 

- Logistics 

59.8% 

42.7% 

-0.8% 

 

 

55.0% 

29.4% 

 

51.0% 

 

SG&A/revenue 

10.2% 

18.6% 

14.4% 

 

 

13.6% 

16.0% 

 

16.3% 

 

EBIT margin 

36.4% 

25.7% 

31.6% 

 

 

33.4% 

28.8% 

 

29.8% 

 

NPAT-MI margin 

25.5% 

28.7% 

26.5% 

 

 

74.8% 

35.8% 

 

35.2% 

 

Core NPAT-MI margin* 

25.5% 

28.7% 

26.5% 

 

 

22.6% 

26.1% 

 

27.9% 

 

Source: GMD, Vietcap. *Note: Core NPAT-MI excludes financial gains from divestments of the Nam Hai Dinh Vu port in Q2 2023 and Nam Hai port in Q1 2024. 

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