- 2024-10-29T00:00:00
- Company Research
GMD announced its 9M 2024 results with net revenue of VND3.4tn (USD136.8mn; +22% YoY; 83% of our 2024F forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND1.2tn (USD49mn; -42% YoY; 85% of our 2024F forecast). Excluding the financial gains from divestments, 9M core NPAT-MI reached VND891bn (USD35.6mn; +40% YoY; 78% of our 2024F forecast). In Q3 2024, net revenue was VND1.3tn (USD50.6mn; +10% QoQ, +27% YoY) and NPAT-MI was VND335bn (USD13.4mn; +1% QoQ, +32% YoY).
9M 2024 core NPAT-MI tracked slightly ahead of our expectation, fulfilling 78% of our full-year 2024F forecast, mainly led by the port segment’s stronger-than-expected performance. 9M consolidated revenue and gross profit of the port segment (which now mainly reflects Nam Dinh Vu’s performance after the divestment of the Nam Hai Dinh Vu and Nam Hai ports) fulfills 88% and 93% of our respective 2024F forecasts. Additionally, Gemalink’s 9M net profit fulfills 97% of our 2024F forecast.
Overall, we see upside potential to our 2024F core NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review.
Segment performance:
Ports: GMD’s Q3 consolidated port revenue grew 11% QoQ and 40% YoY to VND1.1tn (USD43.8mn), leading to 9M port revenue surging 38% YoY and fulfilling 88% of our full-year forecast, ahead of our expectation. The segment’s GPM continued expanding, to 46.0% from 44.4% in Q2 2024 and 43.8% in Q1 2024.
Gemalink: We estimate that Gemalink reported Q3 2024 net profit of VND234bn (USD9.4mn; +41% QoQ), bringing 9M net profit to VND473bn (USD18.9mn), fulfilling 97% of our 2024F forecast. Q3 net profit was the fourth consecutive profitable quarter for Gemalink after four quarters of losses during Q4 2022 – Q3 2023, and also the strongest quarterly level seen since Q1 2022. We attribute the deep-sea port’s strong performance to (1) strong QoQ and YoY throughput recovery, and (2) Gemalink being able to apply tariff rates higher than the new higher floor rates set by Circular 39 due to its strong competitive advantage in the Cai Mep Thi Vai area. However, we note that earnings upside for Gemalink might be limited, as the port is approaching full capacity, with a utilization rate of 110% for 2024F.
Logistics: This segment reported weak results, with Q3 2024 revenue of VND169bn (USD6.8mn; +2% QoQ, -23% YoY) and a VND1bn loss at gross-profit level (GPM of -0.8%) as COGS surged 79% QoQ. For 9M 2024, revenue and gross profit trail our forecasts, at VND497bn (USD19.9mn; -28% YoY; 63% of our 2024F forecast) and VND146bn (USD5.8mn; -62% YoY; 36% of our 2024F forecast), respectively.
GMD’s 9M 2024 results
VNDbn | Q3 2023 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | QoQ | YoY | 9M 2023 | 9M 2024 | YoY | 2024F | 9M as % of 2024F |
Revenue | 998 | 1,151 | 1,264 | 10% | 27% | 2,812 | 3,421 | 22% | 4,106 | 83% |
- Port | 780 | 985 | 1,095 | 11% | 40% | 2,118 | 2,924 | 38% | 3,320 | 88% |
- Logistics | 218 | 165 | 169 | 2% | -23% | 694 | 497 | -28% | 786 | 63% |
Gross profit | 465 | 511 | 581 | 14% | 25% | 1,322 | 1,533 | 16% | 1,895 | 81% |
- Port | 363 | 440 | 583 | 32% | 61% | 969 | 1,387 | 43% | 1,494 | 93% |
- Logistics | 131 | 71 | -1 | -103% | -101% | 382 | 146 | -62% | 401 | 36% |
SG&A expenses | -102 | -214 | -182 | -15% | 79% | -383 | -546 | 43% | -669 | 82% |
EBIT | 363 | 296 | 399 | 35% | 10% | 939 | 987 | 5% | 1,226 | 81% |
Financial income | 33 | 30 | 5 | -85% | -86% | 1,917 | 388 | -80% | 426 | 91% |
Financial expense | -51 | -46 | -50 | 8% | -3% | -122 | -134 | 10% | -153 | 88% |
Net income from affiliates | 52 | 183 | 222 | 21% | 325% | 131 | 503 | 283% | 592 | 85% |
Others | 1 | 56 | -75 | N.M. | N.M. | 18 | -15 | N.M. | -21 | 75% |
PBT | 398 | 520 | 501 | -4% | 26% | 2,884 | 1,728 | -40% | 2,071 | 83% |
NPAT | 338 | 445 | 448 | 1% | 32% | 2,305 | 1,549 | -33% | 1,856 | 83% |
MI | 84 | 115 | 113 | -1% | 34% | 202 | 325 | 61% | 411 | 79% |
NPAT-MI | 254 | 330 | 335 | 1% | 32% | 2,103 | 1,225 | -42% | 1,445 | 85% |
Core NPAT-MI* | 254 | 330 | 335 | 1% | 32% | 635 | 891 | 40% | 1,146 | 78% |
GPM | 46.6% | 44.4% | 46.0% |
|
| 47.0% | 44.8% |
| 46.1% |
|
- Port | 46.5% | 44.7% | 53.2% |
|
| 45.7% | 47.4% |
| 45.0% |
|
- Logistics | 59.8% | 42.7% | -0.8% |
|
| 55.0% | 29.4% |
| 51.0% |
|
SG&A/revenue | 10.2% | 18.6% | 14.4% |
|
| 13.6% | 16.0% |
| 16.3% |
|
EBIT margin | 36.4% | 25.7% | 31.6% |
|
| 33.4% | 28.8% |
| 29.8% |
|
NPAT-MI margin | 25.5% | 28.7% | 26.5% |
|
| 74.8% | 35.8% |
| 35.2% |
|
Core NPAT-MI margin* | 25.5% | 28.7% | 26.5% |
|
| 22.6% | 26.1% |
| 27.9% |
|
Source: GMD, Vietcap. *Note: Core NPAT-MI excludes financial gains from divestments of the Nam Hai Dinh Vu port in Q2 2023 and Nam Hai port in Q1 2024.
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