- We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating for GMD and raise our target price (TP) by 7% from VND57,400/share to VND61,400/share.

- Our higher TP is due to our respective increases of 19%/17%/8% in 2023F/24F/25F EBIT that are mainly driven by our higher gross margin assumptions for consolidated ports. Nevertheless, we cut 2023F/24F/25F net income from associate companies by 24%/19%/7%, which is primarily due to our lower net earnings forecasts for Gemalink and Saigon Cargo Services (HOSE: SCS). As a result, we increase our core 2023F/24F/25F NPAT-MI by 12%/6%/3%, respectively.

- We raise our 2023F core NPAT-MI (i.e., excluding impact from the Nam Hai Dinh Vu (NHDV) port divestment) by 12% to VND1.0tn (USD44.2mn; +5% YoY) as the improvement in consolidated port gross margin more than offsets the reduction in net income from affiliates. Including a VND1.8tn (USD78.1mn) financial gain from the NHDV divestment, our 2023F reported NPAT-MI is VND2.5tn (USD106.7mn; +153% YoY).

- For 2024F, we forecast NPAT-MI of VND1.2tn (USD51.6mn; + 17% YoY vs 2023F core NPAT-MI) as we expect trade activity to recover across GMD’s northern and southern ports.

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