We downgrade GMD to MARKET PERFORM from BUY and trim our target price (TP) to VND55,500/share from VND55,700/share. Our downgrade is driven by GMD share price rallying 26% over the last three months.

Our lower TP is driven by our 4%/8% respective cuts to our 2023/2024F NPAT-MI forecasts, which are partially offset by the positive effect of a cash balance of VND1.4tn (USD58.0mn) as of end-2022 vs VND731bn (USD31.1mn) as of end-Q3 2022.

We continue to factor the dilution effect into our forecasts and valuation from an upcoming rights issuance of ~100.5 million shares at a price of VND20,000/share that was approved by shareholders at GMD’s April 2022 AGM (see page 6).