• We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating for GMD and raise our target price (TP) by 8% to VND69,800/share.
• Our higher TP is mainly due to a 16% higher valuation for its core businesses (i.e., ports and consolidated logistics), and 7% increase in Gemalink’s (GML) valuation, partly offset by a 25% reduction in our valuation for SCS, as outlined in our November 7 SCS Update Report.
• Our higher valuation for the core businesses is because we (1) roll our TP horizon forward to end-2025, (2) raise 2025-29F container throughput by ~15% p.a., and (3) increase average 2025-29F port GPM by ~100bps p.a. due to higher projected throughput boosting utilization rates. These factors outweigh (1) 5%/3% lower 2025/26F logistics revenue, and (2) 700bps/250bps lower 2025/26F logistics GPM due to considerably weaker-than-projected 9M 2024 results.

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