- We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating for GMD while trimming our target price (TP) by 5% to VND76,200/share.

- Our lower target price is mainly due to an 8% lower valuation for Gemalink (GML) as we delay our assumed start dates for commercial operations of GML phase 2A (GML 2A) and 2B (GML 2B) to early Q3 2026 and early Q3 2028, respectively, per our latest discussion with management. As such, we lower 2025/26/27/28F net profit for GML by 30%/51%/40%/18% due to lower throughput forecasts. This valuation drop is partially offset by delayed capex disbursement. We now apply 20-year DCF valuation for GML due to this delay.

- We cut 2024F core NPAT-MI by 10% due to (1) a 41% increase in minority interest (MI) from higher H1 results, (2) a 10% reduction in logistics gross profit due to weaker H1 results, and (3) a 69% drop in CJ Logistics & Shipping's net profit, outweighing a 48% increase in GML's net profit forecast.

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