- We cut our target price (TP) for GEX by 6% but maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. We cut our TP due to a higher conglomerate discount of 15% (vs 10% previously), which outweighs our 4% higher aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI projections for GEX (respective changes of +35%/+1%/-12%/-6%/+9%).

- Our higher aggregate five-year NPAT-MI is mainly driven by our 4% higher earnings projection for GEE (due to higher GPM projections), which outweighs our lower earnings forecast by 2% for VGC (due to higher projected minorities interest).

- We forecast 2025F reported NPAT-MI to drop by 43% YoY to VND664bn, as 2024F divestment gains of VND1.1tn will not recur. However, we forecast core NPAT to double to VND1tn due to (1) 13% growth in electrical equipment revenue despite a high base in 2024, (2) 21% growth in industrial park revenue (contribution from Thuan Thanh), and (3) a lower interest expense.

Powered by Froala Editor