- We cut our target price (TP) for GEG by 35% to VND15,100/share but upgrade our rating from MARKET PERFORM to OUTPERFORM as GEG’s share price has slumped 42% over the past three months. GEG will be the earliest beneficiary under our coverage when the renewable power sector gets a new pricing mechanism. We also believe GEG’s P/E of 0.9x is attractive.

- Our lower TP is due to a 21% cut in our aggregate 2022-2026F NPAT forecast and 100-bp and 200-bp increases in our equity risk premium and cost of debt assumptions, respectively.

- We forecast 2023F core NPAT-MI to rise 21% YoY due to higher profit from GEG’s solar portfolio and four existing wind farms despite a potential loss from the new Tan Phu Dong 1 wind farm (100 MW), which we expect to come online in early 2023.

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