GAS – Weak Q1 result, in line with our forecast – Earnings Flash
  • 2024-04-27T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • GAS announced its Q1 2024 results with revenue of VND21.2tn (+9% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND2.5tn (-25% YoY). We attribute the decrease in the bottom line to weak gas sales volume (-14% YoY), weak LPG sales volume (-9% YoY), and LPG’s price declining 11% YoY. 
  • The average FO price – the benchmark for Vietnam’s gas price — rose by 11% YoY to USD448/tonne in 2023, which is broadly in line with our forecast of USD450/tonne.
  • Q1 NPAT completed 24% of our full-year projection and is broadly in line with our expectation.
  • However, on April 19, 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) released Decision 924 revising its 2024 electricity production plan up by 1.4% to 310.6 billion kWh compared to its previous plan in December 2023. We believe this leads to the higher mobilization for gas thermal power plants and slightly benefits GAS.  We foresee a slight upside to our 2024 earnings, pending a more comprehensive review.
  • We currently have a MARKET PERFORM rating for GAS with a target price of VND80,800/share.

GAS’s Q1 2024 results

VND bn

Q1 2023

Q1 2024

YoY

% of Vietcap’s 2024F

Average Brent oil price (USD/bbl)

82

82

-0.7%

98.6%

Average fuel oil price (USD/tonne)

401

446

11.3%

99.1%

Gas sales volume (million cbm)

1,944

1,672

-14.0%

23.1%

Revenue

21,214

23,315

9.9%

27.8%

COGS

-16,372

-19,624

19.9%

29.2%

Gross profit

4,842

3,691

-23.8%

22.4%

SG&A expenses

-1,063

-803

-24.4%

19.3%

Operating profit (EBIT)

3,779

2,888

-23.6%

23.4%

Financial income

536

463

-13.6%

27.2%

Financial expense

-75

-181

140.9%

30.8%

Profit before tax (PBT)

4,267

3,171

-25.7%

23.5%

Income tax expense

-850

-627

-26.2%

23.3%

NPAT before MI

3,417

2,544

-25.6%

23.6%

Minority interest (MI)

-67

-32

-52.0%

14.1%

Reported NPAT-MI

3,350

2,512

-25.0%

23.8%

Source: GAS, Vietcap

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