- 2024-04-27T00:00:00
- Company Research
- GAS announced its Q1 2024 results with revenue of VND21.2tn (+9% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND2.5tn (-25% YoY). We attribute the decrease in the bottom line to weak gas sales volume (-14% YoY), weak LPG sales volume (-9% YoY), and LPG’s price declining 11% YoY.
- The average FO price – the benchmark for Vietnam’s gas price — rose by 11% YoY to USD448/tonne in 2023, which is broadly in line with our forecast of USD450/tonne.
- Q1 NPAT completed 24% of our full-year projection and is broadly in line with our expectation.
- However, on April 19, 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) released Decision 924 revising its 2024 electricity production plan up by 1.4% to 310.6 billion kWh compared to its previous plan in December 2023. We believe this leads to the higher mobilization for gas thermal power plants and slightly benefits GAS. We foresee a slight upside to our 2024 earnings, pending a more comprehensive review.
- We currently have a MARKET PERFORM rating for GAS with a target price of VND80,800/share.
GAS’s Q1 2024 results
VND bn | Q1 2023 | Q1 2024 | YoY | % of Vietcap’s 2024F |
Average Brent oil price (USD/bbl) | 82 | 82 | -0.7% | 98.6% |
Average fuel oil price (USD/tonne) | 401 | 446 | 11.3% | 99.1% |
Gas sales volume (million cbm) | 1,944 | 1,672 | -14.0% | 23.1% |
Revenue | 21,214 | 23,315 | 9.9% | 27.8% |
COGS | -16,372 | -19,624 | 19.9% | 29.2% |
Gross profit | 4,842 | 3,691 | -23.8% | 22.4% |
SG&A expenses | -1,063 | -803 | -24.4% | 19.3% |
Operating profit (EBIT) | 3,779 | 2,888 | -23.6% | 23.4% |
Financial income | 536 | 463 | -13.6% | 27.2% |
Financial expense | -75 | -181 | 140.9% | 30.8% |
Profit before tax (PBT) | 4,267 | 3,171 | -25.7% | 23.5% |
Income tax expense | -850 | -627 | -26.2% | 23.3% |
NPAT before MI | 3,417 | 2,544 | -25.6% | 23.6% |
Minority interest (MI) | -67 | -32 | -52.0% | 14.1% |
Reported NPAT-MI | 3,350 | 2,512 | -25.0% | 23.8% |
Source: GAS, Vietcap
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