- 2024-07-31T00:00:00
- Company Research
- GAS announced its Q2 2024 results with revenue of VND30tn (+25% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND3.3tn (+5% YoY). We attribute strong revenue growth primarily to (1) the 16% YoY increase in the FO price to USD502/tonne and a 14% YoY higher LPG price of USD591/tonne, and (2) a contribution of LNG revenue and distribution fees vs none in Q2 2023, given LNG’s price is higher than the ASP of domestic gas. These outweigh a 33% decline in the gas sales volume (due to decreasing domestic gas supply). We note that in Q2 2024, GAS’s sales volume was 1.38 billion cbm, of which, 240 million cbm was LNG sales.
- For H1 2024, GAS reported revenue of VND53.4tn (+18% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND5.8tn (-10% YoY), which complete 62% and 53% of our respective full-year forecasts. Despite a 25% YoY slump in sales volume, revenue grew 18% YoY due to (1) a 13% YoY higher FO price, and (2) the contribution of LNG sales and distribution fees. However, we attribute a 10% YoY decrease in reported NPAT-MI to (1) 32% YoY higher SG&A expenses due to a VND815bn provision, and (2) 6.0x YoY higher FX loss. We attribute the provision to potential bad debt from the Nhon Trach 1 & NT2 power plants, due to the unsolved dispute related to the Phu My – Ho Chi Minh gas pipeline tariff. We are contacting GAS for further explanation.
- The average FO price – the benchmark for Vietnam’s gas price — rose 13% YoY to USD474/tonne in H1 2024, which is slightly higher than our current forecast of USD450/tonne, while the average H1 Brent oil price is in line with our forecast at USD83/bbl.
- Overall, we see potential slight upside to our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review.
- We currently have an OUTPERFORM rating for GAS with a target price of VND82,000/share.
GAS’s H1 2024 results
VND bn | Q2 2023 | Q2 2024 | YoY | H1 2023 | H1 2024 | YoY | % of Vietcap’s 2024F |
Average Brent oil price (USD/bbl) | 78 | 85 | 9% | 80 | 83 | 4% | 100% |
Average fuel oil price (USD/tonne) | 434 | 502 | 16% | 417 | 474 | 13% | 105% |
Gas sales volume (million cbm) | 2,046 | 1,380 | -33% | 3,990 | 3,012 | -25% | 42% |
Revenue | 24,043 | 30,052 | 25% | 45,257 | 53,367 | 18% | 62% |
COGS | -19,700 | -24,316 | 23% | -36,072 | -43,940 | 22% | 63% |
Gross profit | 4,343 | 5,736 | 32% | 9,185 | 9,427 | 3% | 57% |
SG&A expenses | -853 | -1,726 | 102% | -1,915 | -2,529 | 32% | 59% |
Operating profit (EBIT) | 3,490 | 4,010 | 15% | 7,270 | 6,898 | -5% | 56% |
Financial income | 598 | 445 | -26% | 1,135 | 908 | -20% | 45% |
Financial expense | -95 | -229 | 141% | -170 | -410 | 141% | 70% |
Profit before tax (PBT) | 3,999 | 4,239 | 6% | 8,266 | 7,410 | -10% | 54% |
Income tax expense | -803 | -823 | 3% | -1,653 | -1,450 | -12% | 52% |
NPAT before MI | 3,196 | 3,416 | 7% | 6,613 | 5,960 | -10% | 54% |
Minority interest (MI) | -40 | -95 | 136% | -107 | -127 | 19% | N.M. |
Reported NPAT-MI | 3,156 | 3,321 | 5% | 6,506 | 5,832 | -10% | 53% |
Source: GAS, Vietcap
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