- We raise our target price for GAS by 1% to VND107,100/share and maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. Our higher target price is due to our 1% higher aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of 6%/0%/0% for 2023/2024/2025F) following our higher 2023F fuel oil (FO) price assumption (benchmark for output gas price).

- We forecast 2023F NPAT-MI to decline 17% YoY due to lower output gas prices given our forecasts for 24%/14% lower YoY Brent oil and FO prices, respectively, which outweigh a 7% YoY increase in gas sales volume.

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to grow 3% YoY, coupled with strong volume growth (+8.5% YoY) driven by imported LNG, an expectation for strong electricity consumption, and less competition from hydropower. We expect these factors to outweigh FO price declining 7% YoY.

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