- We cut our target price (TP) for GAS by 9% to VND80,800/share and downgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM. Our lower TP is due to a 12% cut in our aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI outweighing delays in capex for the Thi Vai LNG Terminal - Phases 2 & 3.

- We cut our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast by 12% (respective changes of -4%/-14%/-15% for 2023/24/25F) mainly due to lower assumptions for gas/LNG volumes, LPG prices and output gas prices for the industrial park segment following GAS’s recent analyst meeting.

- We forecast 2023F NPAT-MI to decline 21% YoY to VND11.7tn due to our forecasts for YoY declines in Brent oil, FO, and LPG prices of 16%/10%/21%, respectively and GAS’s preliminary 2023 NPAT announcement of VND11.6tn.

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to decline 10% YoY based on a flat YoY FO price assumption, 3% YoY lower gas volume, a loss from the Thi Vai LNG terminal with nominal volume of 50 million cbm (vs 650 million cbm previously assumed), and a higher weighted average input gas price.

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