- We cut our TP for GAS by 17% to VND112,400/share and downgrade our rating from BUY to MARKET PERFORM. Our lower TP is due to our 26% lower aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI following our lower gas volume and fuel oil price assumptions (benchmark for output gas price). 

- We forecast 2023F NPAT-MI to decline 18% YoY due to lower gas output prices given our forecasts for lower YoY Brent oil and fuel oil (FO) prices, a delay in the operation of Thi Vai LNG terminal — Phase 1 and 16% YoY higher input gas prices.

- We expect GAS’s long-term growth to be bolstered by importing LNG to Vietnam. As we forecast Vietnam’s LNG import prices to normalize at USD12/MMBTU starting in 2024F, we believe GAS will start to operate its Thi Vai LNG terminal — Phase 1 in 2024, expand it with Phases 2 & 3 and execute the Son My LNG terminal to increase its sales volume by 50% in 2023-2027F, which should achieve a 10-year EPS CAGR of 10%.

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