GAS [MARKET PERFORM +3.5%] - 2023 results in line with forecast, 2024 NPAT-MI to decline 9% YoY

We maintain our target price (TP) for GAS at VND80,800/share and our MARKET PERFORM rating as stated in our GAS update Report, dated December 28, 2023.
We maintain our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast.
We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to decline 9% YoY based on a flat YoY FO price assumption, 3% YoY lower gas volume, a loss from the Thi Vai LNG terminal with nominal volume of 50 million cbm, and a higher weighted average input gas price.
Despite short-term headwinds, we believe GAS will continue to expand the Thi Vai LNG Terminal with Phases 2 & 3 and execute the Son My LNG terminal to supply feedstock for new power plants including Nhon Trach 3 & 4, Long An, and Son My. Together with volume from the Block B and White Lion Phase 2B gas fields, this should help to double sales volume in 2023-2028F. We forecast GAS to deliver a 10-year EPS CAGR of 10%.