- GAS announced Q2 2021 results with revenue of VND22.7tn (USD987mn; +45.6% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND2.3tn (USD98mn; +27.6% YoY) as the positive impact of fuel oil prices (FO) doubling YoY outweighed weak sales volume. 

- Total gas volume in Q2 dropped 9.7% YoY due to weak gas demand from power plants despite strong gas volume for industrial parks (+38.2% YoY) and solid demand from fertilizer producers. 

- Selling and administration expenses in Q2 rose 52.3% YoY, which were slightly higher than anticipated as GAS booked VND154bn (USD6.7mn) of expenses for a COVID-19 donation and vaccinations for all of its employees. We expect these expenses will diminish in H2 2021. In addition, depreciation expenses were slightly higher than our forecast. 

- In H1 2021, GAS’s revenue and NPAT-MI increased 23.2% YoY and 4.5% YoY, respectively. H1 2021 revenue and NPAT-MI completed 56.3% and 46.7% of our respective full-year forecasts. The gas sales volume trailed our expectation as the H1 number achieved 43.1% of our full-year forecast. Meanwhile, the H1 average FO price was USD367/ton, beating our assumption of USD290/ton for 2021F. We foresee downside risk to our 2021F sales volume but upside risk to our FO price forecast.

- Overall, these results are in line with our expectation. We foresee insignificant changes to our current 2021F NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review.