- 2024-01-31T00:00:00
- Company Research
- GAS announced its Q4 2023 results with revenue of VND22.6tn (+2% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND2.7tn (-16% YoY). Q4 2023 NPAT-MI increased 15% vs a low base in Q3 2023, which was driven by a 15% QoQ higher gas sales volume and 51% QoQ lower financial expenses, outweighing a 10% QoQ lower average fuel oil (FO) price. GAS reversed VND104bn of provision expenses (under GA expenses) in Q4 2023 due to a decrease in bad debts in Q4 vs Q3.
- In 2023, GAS recorded revenue of VND90tn (-11% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND11.6tn (-22% YoY), which are equivalent to 104% and 99% of our respective forecasts. We attribute the YoY drop in NPAT-MI to 1) a 11% YoY lower average FO price, 2) a 6% YoY lower gas sales volume, and 3) 14% YoY higher SG&A expenses (mainly due to GAS recording VND152bn of provision expenses in 2023).
- The average FO price – the benchmark for Vietnam’s gas price — decreased by 11% YoY to USD448/tonne in 2023, which is in line with our forecast of USD450/tonne.
- According to GAS, gas sales volume fell 6% YoY to 7.3 bcm in 2023, completing 98% of our volume forecast and in line with our expectation. This decline is mainly due to 7% YoY weaker gas volumes sold to 1) power plants due to low competitive generation market (CGM) prices despite favorable weather for gas-fired power plants and 2) industrial parks due to economic slowdown.
- We foresee insignificant changes to our 2024 forecasts, pending a more comprehensive review.
- We currently have a MARKET PERFORM rating for GAS with a target price of VND88,400/share.
GAS’s Q4 2023 & 2023 results
VND bn | Q4 2023 | YoY | 2023 | YoY | % of Vietcap’s 2023F |
Average Brent oil price (USD/bbl) | 83 | -8% | 82 | -17% | 99% |
Average fuel oil price (USD/tonne) | 453 | 19% | 448 | -11% | 100% |
Gas sales volume (million cbm) | 1,773 | -13% | 7,300 | -6% | 98% |
Revenue | 22,571 | 2% | 89,954 | -11% | 104% |
COGS | -18,512 | 8% | -73,029 | -8% | 105% |
Gross profit | 4,058 | -17% | 16,925 | -21% | 99% |
SG&A expenses | -1,106 | 7% | -4,019 | 14% | 101% |
Operating profit (EBIT) | 2,953 | -23% | 12,906 | -27% | 99% |
Financial income | 544 | 11% | 2,273 | 45% | 96% |
Financial expense | -138 | -25% | -587 | -13% | 98% |
Profit before tax (PBT) | 3,365 | -19% | 14,640 | -22% | 98% |
Income tax expense | -589 | -29% | -2,846 | -24% | 95% |
NPAT before MI | 2,776 | -17% | 11,793 | -22% | 99% |
Minority interest (MI) | -53 | -39% | -187 | -30% | 88% |
Reported NPAT-MI | 2,723 | -16% | 11,606 | -22% | 99% |
Source: GAS, Fiinpro, Vietcap
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