Vietnam’s pangasius and shrimp export value advanced 5% YoY and 8% YoY in H1 2024, respectively. Based on our estimate from AgroMonitor’s data, in Q2 2024, pangasius export growth of 11% YoY was mainly driven by robust 22% YoY volume growth that was partially offset by the decrease of 10% YoY in average export prices, while shrimp export value was flat at -1% YoY driven by 3% YoY growth in volume offsetting 4% YoY lower export prices.

As the festive season is approaching, Vietnamese fishery exports are expected to see stronger YoY growth in H2 2024. In Q2 2024, pangasius export volume to the US market jumped 40% YoY while that of China grew 23% YoY. Sales volume to the European market increased 5% YoY. The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) expects fisheries exports to continue its strong growth momentum as food operators in those key markets are ramping up stocking for the festive seasons in end-Q3 and Q4. Meanwhile, among key shrimp export markets, Vietnam's H1 2024 shrimp export value saw the strongest growth in the EU (+31% YoY) and China (+17% YoY). In contrast, exports to the US were nearly flat at 1% YoY and declined by 3% YoY in Japan. While the outlook for H2 2024 is improving, we see that challenges persist for Vietnam’s shrimp exports, including (1) increased competition from Ecuador and India in the markets in the US and China, and (2) shrimp diseases and adverse weather conditions affecting farming and sufficient supply.

We expect fish filet selling prices to stay flat in 2024 and rebound in 2025. We believe the combination of low supply, due to heavy rains in Vietnam affecting fish health and farming activities, and recovering demand will support our expectation of a YoY improvement in pangasius ASP and farmgate prices in H2 2024 into 2025.

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