- We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating for DXS while reducing our target price by 12% to VND7,100/share. Our lower target price is mainly driven by (1) our 10% lower aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (respective changes of -8%/-14%/-12%/-9%/-8% in 2024/25/26/27/28F) due to lower projected property sales revenue, and (2) a higher assumption for minority interest as a percentage of total revenue following the H1 2024 results.

- We forecast NPAT-MI to turn profitable at VND175bn (USD6.9mn) in 2024F and to grow 100%/50% YoY in 2025/26F, respectively, vs a 2023 net loss of VND168bn (USD6.6mn; due to low property transactions and an abnormal loss from affiliate Dat Xanh Mien Nam). We anticipate the expected recovery in property brokerage revenue to be the chief driver for DXS’s earnings growth in 2024-26F given its leading market position (~33% of property brokerage market share at end-Q2 2024).

- Based on our forecast, DXS is trading at a 2025F P/E of 11.2x (our forecast) vs our selected regional peer median 2025F P/E of 9.6x (consensus estimates, Bloomberg), which we believe is justified given DXS’s strong local competitive advantages and 2024/25F profit recovery outlook. It is also trading at respective 2024/25F P/Bs of 0.6x/0.6x, lower in comparison to its own average P/B since listing in July 2021 of 1.1x.

Powered by Froala Editor