- 2024-10-22T00:00:00
- Company Research
We attended earnings calls for DXG and DXS on October 22 and the key takeaways are as follows.
9M 2024 preliminary results:
- DXS: Q3 2024 preliminary NPAT-MI of VND32bn (USD1.3mn; -16% QoQ); 9M 2024 preliminary NPAT-MI of VND101bn (USD4.1mn; compared to 9M 2023’s net loss of VND54bn/USD2.2mn), mainly driven by YoY higher transactions.
- DXG: Q3 2024 preliminary NPAT-MI of VND31bn (USD1.3mn; -6% QoQ); 9M 2024 preliminary NPAT-MI of VND95bn (USD3.8mn; -26% YoY), primarily due to contributions from Opal Skyline handovers and DXS.
- 9M 2024 preliminary NPAT-MI for DXS and DXG equals 58% and 47% of our 2024F forecasts, respectively.
- Overall, we foresee potential downside risk to our respective 2024F NPAT-MI forecasts of VND175bn/USD7.0mn (vs 2023’s net loss of VND168bn/USD6.7mn) for DXS and VND201bn/USD8.0mn (+17% YoY) for DXG as the 9M 2024 results trailed our expectaions, pending a fuller review.
Brokerage segment: In Q3 2024, DXS recorded around 3,000-4,000 transactions (vs around 7,000 transactions in H1 2024) with the contributions from traditional and full-service brokerage services around 80% and 20% (vs 70% and 30% in H1 2024), respectively. Per DXS, its market share declined slightly in Q3 2024, as a result of increased new launches by major/large developers, who utilize their own sales networks, limiting DXS's distribution role. DXS expects the nationwide absorption rate (of total accumulated primary supply) to slightly increase to 35-40% in Q4 2024, compared to 32-37% in Q3 2024.
Gem Sky World (GSW; 3,900 low-rise units; 92 ha in Dong Nai): Approximately 60% of this project is presold (broadly unchanged from the end of 2023), with 40% already handed over. This leaves around 700 units of backlog to be booked, of which DXG anticipates approximately 30-40 units to be recognized in Q4 2024G.
Currently, there are about 1,700 unsold units remaining. DXG has not provided guidance for the timing of the project’s relaunch but has noted that the company's current priority is finalizing handovers and signing SPAs with existing customers. This guidance for handovers/sales progress at GSW trails our previous expectations.
Gem Riverside (6.7 ha, Thu Duc City, HCMC): DXG received the construction permit for this project in September 2024. DXG is discussing solutions with customers for approximately 300 units, which have been under purchase agreements since 2019. The company guides for completion of the project’s foundation and a potential sales launch by Q1 2025. We currently expect presales at this project to start in 2025F and for handovers to start in 2027F.
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