DPM [BUY +21.3%] - Tax savings, lower input gas price to boost 2025F earnings

- We raise our target price (TP) for DPM by 5.6% to VND39,700/share and upgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to BUY. Our higher TP is due to the positive impact of rolling our TP to end 2025 and a 0.1% increase in aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of -2.2%/-4.9%/+2.0%/+1.8%/+1.8% for 2024/25/26/27/28F).

- The changes to our forecast are driven by 1) higher ASP assumptions, 2) lower other cash operating costs following audited H1 results, outweighing 3) a higher 2025F input gas price and 4) a VND95bn loss p.a. during the forecast period from paying debt of an associated company.

- We forecast DPM’s NPAT-MI to increase 42% YoY in 2024, driven by higher urea sales volume and ASP, as well as good control of urea and NPK other cash costs.