- 2024-01-30T00:00:00
- Company Research
- DHC announced Q4 2023 results with revenue and NPAT declining 14% and 9% YoY, respectively. Full-year 2023 revenue and NPAT decreased 17% YoY and 18% YoY, fulfilling 104% and 99% of our forecasts, respectively.
- Q4 2023 gross profits edged up 5% QoQ amid an improvement in selling prices. We estimate that DHC’s 2023 paper ASP hit a 10-year low of VND8,900/kg. However, the carton paper price in southern Vietnam bounced back from VND7,500/kg to VND8,400/kg during Q4 2023.
- Paper prices in southern Vietnam edged up further YTD from VND8,400/kg to VND8,900/kg, thanks to recovering export demand and the upcoming Lunar New Year that boosts Chinese and Vietnamese consumption.
- DHC management expects another round of price hikes in March 2024. As a result, we expect Q1 – Q2 2024 earnings to recover further.
- DHC’s long-term outlook remains uncertain as management is reconsidering its expansion plan (the Giao Long 3 project is expected to come online in 2027). It is looking for the most viable value-added product (e.g., kraftliner or tissue) for this project because the mass paper segment is oversupplied.
- We foresee no potential changes to our forecasts, pending a more comprehensive review.
DHC’s 2023 results
VND bn | Q3 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q4 2023
| Q4 2023 YoY | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 YoY | 2023/ 2023F | 2023F |
Revenue | 794 | 946 | 816 | -14% | 2,443 | 3,259 | -17% | 104% | 3,142 |
Gross profit | 107 | 119 | 112 | -6% | 391 | 504 | -17% | 99% | 508 |
Operating profit | 72 | 91 | 84 | -8% | 275 | 359 | -20% | 98% | 367 |
Non-operating items | -7 | 5 | 3 | -1% | -4 | -1 | -94% | 3% | -11 |
PBT | 64 | 96 | 87 | -9% | 271 | 358 | -18% | 101% | 356 |
NPAT-MI | 56 | 82 | 75 | -9% | 234 | 309 | -18% | 99% | 313 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GPM | 13.5% | 12.6% | 13.8% |
| 16.0% | 15.5% |
|
| 16.2% |
SG&A/revenue | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| 4.8% | 4.4% |
|
| 4.5% |
OPM | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.3% |
| 11.3% | 11.0% |
|
| 11.7% |
NPM | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% |
| 9.6% | 9.5% |
|
| 10.0% |
Source: DHC, Vietcap
Powered by Froala Editor