- We lower our target price (TP) by 14% but maintain our OUTPERFORM rating as DHC's share price has dropped 12% over the past three months.

- We reduced our 2024F/25F/26F NPAT-MI forecasts by 17%/14%/1%, respectively. While maintaining expectations for a decrease in old, corrugated container (OCC) prices, supported by cooling shipping costs and a lower USD/VND exchange rate, we expect a slower paper price recovery in the medium term. This is partly offset by our higher forecast for carton box sales volumes.

- Our 2024 GPM projection has been impacted by DHC's low-margin steel trading in Q2 2024, which we do not expect to continue moving forward. Excluding this one-off activity, our core GPM forecast for 2024 is 13.3%, compared to the blended GPM of 12.7%.

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