DHC – GPM on track to improve as paper prices gradually recover - Earnings Flash
  • 2024-10-30T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • DHC released its 9M 2024 results with revenue up 11% YoY, while NPAT-MI declined by 18% YoY. These results are in line with our expectations, fulfilling 74% and 73% of our respective 2024 full-year forecasts. We foresee insignificant changes to our forecast, pending a fuller review.
  • GPM showed gradual improvement, rising from 10.8% in Q2 2024 to 12.7% in Q3 2024, although still below the 17.2% seen in Q2 2023. This margin growth reflects recovering paper prices which enhance the price spread (paper prices - OCC prices), coupled with no more low-margin steel trading activities.
  • We estimate that in Q3 2024, the price of imported Southeast Asia OCC decreased slightly by 2% QoQ. Additionally, packaging paper prices in southern Vietnam were decreased more slowly by 1% to VND9,400/kg. 
  • We maintain our expectation for a continued recovery in earnings, supported by a gradual widening in the price spread, coupled with increasing utilization of carton box factories.
  • DHC received investment approval for the Giao Long 3 (GL3) factory in early October. Following this, DHC is going to apply for the construction permit. We note that GL3 has a planned capex of VND1.8 trillion, a production capacity of 1,000 tonnes per day, and construction is set to begin in Q1 2025, with operations targeted for Q3 2027.

DHC’s 9M 2024 results

VND bn

Q3 2023

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

QoQ

YoY

9M 2023

9M 2024

YoY

9M 2024 as % of 2024F

2024F

Revenue

 794 

 1,016 

 896 

-12%

13%

 2,443 

 2,723 

11%

74%

 3,687 

Gross profit

 107 

 110 

 114 

4%

7%

 391 

 328 

-16%

70%

 468 

Operating profit

 72 

 72 

 76 

6%

7%

 275 

 215 

-22%

69%

 313 

PBT

 64 

 70 

 90 

28%

40%

 271 

 223 

-18%

74%

 303 

NPAT-MI

 56 

 60 

 77 

28%

38%

 234 

 193 

-18%

73%

 266 

GPM

13.5%

10.8%

12.7%

 

 

16.0%

12.1%

 

 

12.7%

SG&A/revenue

-4.5%

-3.7%

-4.2%

 

 

-4.7%

-4.2%

 

 

-4.2%

OPM

9.0%

7.1%

8.5%

 

 

11.3%

7.9%

 

 

8.5%

NPM

7.0%

5.9%

8.6%

 

 

9.6%

7.1%

 

 

7.2%

Source: DHC, Vietcap forecast

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