- We lower our target price (TP) by 3% to VND122,000/share but upgrade our rating from MARKET PERFORM to OUTPERFORM as DGC’s share price has dropped 20% in the last month.

- We lower our NPAT-MI forecasts for 2024/25/26F by 1%/10%/7%, respectively. For 2024, we now assume that DGC’s ethanol factory will become operational in Q4 2024, in line with management’s guidance, vs our previous expectation of Q3 2024. For 2025F/26F, we expect a slower ASP recovery as demand recovers, and we delay DGC’s property project from 2025F to 2026F as we believe additional time will be required for the project’s legal completion.

- Our lower TP is due to a 3% decrease in our aggregate core EBITDA forecast for 2024F/25F, with respective changes of -1%/-4% in 2024F/25F. Nevertheless, our new core EBITDA forecast still translates to strong growth of 53% YoY in 2025F, driven by earnings recovery, and contributions from new ethanol and chlor-alkali projects.

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