- We reiterate our BUY rating for DGC despite cutting our target price by 15%. Our lower target price is mainly because of decreasing our target EV/EBITDA to 6x from previously 8x, which is to account for a 1-ppt increase in our equity risk premium and our lower 2024F-2025F EBITDA.

- For our aggregate 2022-2025 forecasts, we keep NPAT-MI unchanged as a 6% cut in EBITDA is offset by a 73% increase in net financial gains.

- DGC’s recent maintenance of its P4 production equipment causes us to assume a lower sales volume. In addition, because Vietnam’s only electricity distributor (EVN) recently incurred losses resulting from high energy prices, we raise our post-2022 input electricity price assumption. We also lower our phosphate rock cost-saving forecast.  

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