- We reiterate BUY for DGC despite trimming our target price (TP) by 2% to VND108,000/share.
- We cut our 2023F/24F/25F core EBITDA by 12%/12%/10% mainly due to our lower selling price assumptions. However, this is offset by an increase in our target EV/EBITDA from 6.0x to 6.5x.
- We forecast NPAT-MI of VND972bn for Q4 2023 vs VND802bn in Q3 2023 thanks to DGC’s new phosphorus factory and wet phosphoric acid (WPA) prices which have increased.
- We forecast an average of VND1.15tn per quarter for 2024. This is because we anticipate a recovery in industrial phosphorus chemical (IPC) prices due to the rebound in semiconductor demand and the onset of the dry season in China, which leads to higher electricity costs.