- We cut our target price (TP) for DCM by 16.9% to VND35,800/share and downgrade our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM. This is mainly due to our 16.8% cut in our aggregate 2025-2029F NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of -29.5%/-15.5%/-12.7%/-13.4%/-13.8% for 2025/26/27/28/29F).

- Our lower aggregate 2025-2029F NPAT-MI forecast is primarily due to (1) 4.6% lower urea ASP, and (2) 2.3% higher gas prices in 2025-29F on average (due to higher contributions from expensive gas fields bought from Petronas). 

- We project 2025 NPAT-MI of VND1.6tn (+23% YoY), driven by (1) estimated ~VND150bn tax savings from a 5% VAT, (2) 7% YoY lower gas prices, and (3) growing NPK sales volume.

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