- We raise our target price (TP) for DCM by 6.7% to VND43,100/share and upgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to BUY. This is mainly due to the positive impact of rolling our TP to the end 2025 and an 0.1% increase in our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of +3.5%/-3.8%/+2.2%/-0.1%/0.0% for 2024/25/26/27/28F). 

- Our higher aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast is primarily due to (1) a lower 2024F input gas price with lower projected Brent oil price and 2) 7% higher aggregate NPK volume outweighing the negative impact of our higher 2025F input gas price assumption. 

- We forecast DCM’s NPAT-MI to rise by 42% YoY in 2024, mainly driven by (1) a 75% reduction in depreciation expense due to the full depreciation of DCM’s urea plant in September 2023, and (2) one-off income from the revaluation of its investment in Korea-Vietnam Fertilizer (KVF), recorded in Q2 following DCM’s consolidation of KVF after increasing its stake to 100%. These factors offset (3) an estimated 1% increase in the average input gas price and (4) a 4% YoY decline in sales volume.

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