- We raise our target price (TP) for CTR by 7% to VND138,000/share but downgrade our rating to MARKET PERFORM from BUY as the share price has increased 24% over the last two months.

- Our higher TP is driven by (1) our 7% higher aggregate 2024-2031F EBITDA forecast due to our incorporation of the fiber optic cable along the North-South Highway into our projection, outweighing our lower towerco tenancy rate assumption, (2) revised valuation mix between the DCF/SoTP methods from 50%/50% to 70%/30%, together with the incorporation of the fiber optic cable along the North-South Highway project using the DCF method in our SoTP valuation method. We also roll our TP horizon forward from YE2024 to mid-2025.

- We project a 31% EBITDA CAGR for 2023-2026F led by a 58% CAGR in the infrastructure leasing segment. We believe the shift to 4G and 5G technology from 2G and 3G, and higher demand for strengthening 4G signal coverage, will require denser telecom infrastructure. As a result, we forecast CTR’s tower count to triple to ~20,000 by end-2026. We forecast infrastructure leasing's contribution to EBITDA to increase from 30% in 2023 to 54% in 2026F.

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