- We cut our target price for CTR by 3% but reiterate our BUY rating. We forecast CTR’s EBITDA to grow at a 17.8% CAGR in 2023-2027F, which will be led by the towerco segment. Against this positive outlook, our TP puts CTR’s EV/2023F EBITDA at 9.9x, which looks attractive at a 10% and 57% discount vs the 2018-2022 five-year averages of our selected peer median TTM EV/EBITDA of 11.0x and 22.8x for emerging Asian and global developed peers, respectively.

- Our lower target price is mainly driven by an 8% cut to our aggregate 2023F-2027F EBITDA forecast for CTR’s towerco segment, which is partly offset by a 0.5-ppt decrease in our WACC assumption.

- For 2023F, we forecast CTR to achieve revenue of VND10tn (USD442mn; +11% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND476bn (USD20mn; +7% YoY). We expect the higher revenue and earnings to be led by telecom-related segments (i.e., towerco and operation) but hampered by the sluggish growth of the construction segment.

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