CTR [BUY +23.5%] - Change in telecom technology to drive solid earnings growth

- We raise our target price (TP) for CTR by 26% to VND128,500/share and maintain our BUY rating.

- Our higher TP is driven by (1) a 41% higher DCF valuation due to extending our explicit forecast period to end-2031 (vs end-2028 as previously) to reflect the anticipated robust long-term growth from the 5G rollout starting in 2024 and (2) a 6% higher SoTP EV/EBITDA valuation mainly due to a 3% higher 2024F EBITDA projection.

- We project a 28% EBITDA CAGR for 2023-26F led by a 51% CAGR in the towerco segment. We believe the shift to 4G and 5G technology will require denser telecom infrastructure. As a result, we forecast CTR’s tower count to triple to ~20,000 by end-2026. We forecast towerco's contribution to EBITDA to increase from 30% in 2023 to 50% in 2026F.