- We maintain our target price (TP) for CTR at VND138,000/share but upgrade our rating from MARKET PERFORM to BUY as the share price declined 14% in the past two months.

- We trim our aggregate 2024-2031F EBITDA forecast by 0.3% (decreases of 1% for each of 2024/25/26F). We trim our 2024F EBITDA projection due to reducing the projected operation segment's revenue growth from 15% to 13% following its slightly weaker-than-expected H1 2024 result.

- We project a 30% EBITDA CAGR for 2023-2026F led by a 59% CAGR in the infrastructure leasing segment. We believe the shift to 4G and 5G technology from 2G and 3G, and higher demand for strengthening 4G coverage, will require denser telecom infrastructure. We thus forecast CTR’s tower count to triple from 6,436 at end-2023 to ~20,000 by end-2026. We forecast infrastructure leasing's EBITDA contribution to rise from 30% in 2023 to 55% in 2026F.

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