CTR [BUY +21.1%] - Raising forecasts for operation and construction segments

- We raise our target price (TP) for CTR by 11% and maintain our BUY rating.

- Our higher TP is mainly due to an 8% increase in aggregate 2023-27F EBITDA resulting from (1) a 17% increase in our aggregate 2023-27F EBITDA for the operation segment as we expect stronger growth to be led by more domestic broadband subscribers and foreign market expansion, and (2) our 18% higher aggregate 2023-27F EBITDA for the construction segment resulting from our expectation for strong growth in CTR’s residential construction business as the real estate market recovers and profitability improves thanks to strong synergies across segments. However, these factors are partly offset by our 2% lower aggregate 2023-27F EBITDA for the towerco segment as we decrease our tower count projection.

- We project a 14% EBITDA CAGR for 2023-25F — led by a 22% CAGR in towerco — as we expect CTR will increase its number of towers from ~4,300 as of YE2022 to 11,000 by YE2025F. We forecast towerco's contribution to EBITDA will increase from 24% in 2022 to 37% in 2024F.