CTG [OUTPERFORM +14.3%] - Asset quality and credit costs to improve significantly

- We maintain our target price (TP) for CTG at VND40,000/share, but downgrade our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM as CTG’s share price has increased ~8% in the last three months.

- We broadly maintain our aggregate earnings forecast for 2024-2028F (respective changes of 2%/0%/-1%/0%/0% in 2024/25/26/27/28F).

- We slightly increase our 2024F net profit projection by 2% to VND22.8tn (USD897mn; +14.7% YoY) mainly due to a 6% increase in our NOII forecast with a higher forecast for recoveries from written-off bad debts. At the recent analyst meeting, management stated that they expect up to VND7tn of income from written-off bad debts (+50% YoY).