CTG [BUY +23.5%] - PPOP growth to outweigh higher credit costs in 2024F

- We raise our target price (TP) for CTG by 2% to VND40,000/share and upgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to BUY. CTG’s share price has decreased ~9% in the last three months.

- Our higher TP is mainly due to (1) the positive impact of rolling forward our TP horizon to mid-2025F, which outweighs (2) an 8% decrease in our projection for aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (respective decreases of 5%/7%/8%/9%/9% in 2024/25/26/27/28F).

- We trim our 2024F net profit projection by 5% to VND22.4tn (USD897mn; +12.7% YoY) mainly due to (1) reducing our NOII forecasts by 15% due to weak results in Q1 2024 driven by YoY decreases in fees from usance payables at sight letter of credit (UPAS LC) and insurance commission that outweigh (2) the positive impact of our higher NIM forecasts.