- BSR released its 9M 2023 results with NPAT-MI of VND6.2tn (-52% YoY), which was 9% higher than the previous announcement at the BSR Analyst Meeting on October 19, 2023. We attribute the decline in 9M NPAT-MI as mainly due to a YoY plunge in crack spreads (the difference between the output prices and input prices) following 2022's high base.

- BSR achieved a strong Q3 with an NPAT-MI of VND3.3tn (+581% YoY; +143% QoQ). We also note that BSR made an inventory provision of VND822bn in Q3 2023 to factor the oil price decreasing by 14% in early October from a peak of USD98/bbl in late September to USD84/bbl. Excluding this provision, Q3 2023 NPAT-MI would have been VND4.1tn (+753% YoY; +204% QoQ). We attribute strong Q3 results to higher crack spreads in Q3 2023, following the increase in the Platts Singapore gasoline and diesel spread (a benchmark for Southeast Asian crack spreads). In Q3 2023, the average Singapore diesel spread was USD24/bbl (-34% YoY; +76% QoQ) and the average Singapore gasoline spread was USD16/bbl (+96% YoY; +34% QoQ). 

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