- 2024-05-02T00:00:00
- Company Research
- BSR released its Q1 2024 results with revenue of VND30.7tn (-10% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND1.1tn (-30% YoY). The YoY decrease is mainly due to (1) 4% YoY lower sales volume because of planned maintenance (50 days, from 15 March to 1 May), and (2) a 2.0 ppts decrease YoY in gross profit margin, driven by YoY lower average crack spreads (the difference between output prices and input prices).
- Q1 2024 results are slightly lower than our expectations, which are equivalent to 25% and 17% of our revenue and reported NPAT-MI forecasts, respectively. Lower-than-expected reported NPAT-MI is due to lower-than-expected average crack spreads, which is reflected in the GPM. Q1 2024 GPM is 4.1%, lower than our full-year projection of 6.1%. In addition, financial expenses are also much higher than our forecast. In contrast, the sales volume is higher than expected which we attribute to a higher-than-expected efficiency rate. Based on the actual sales volume for Q1 2024, we estimate an efficiency rate of 120%, which is higher than our projection of 110%. Therefore, we foresee a slight downside risk to our earnings forecast, pending a fuller review.
- Crack spreads remain significantly above the pre-pandemic level as the supply and demand gap of refined products is still wide. The average Singapore gasoline and diesel crack spreads (a benchmark for Asian refineries) in Q1 2024 was USD14.7/bbl (+9% YoY; +64% QoQ) and USD19.4/bbl (-18% YoY; -12% QoQ), respectively. We note that both the average Singapore gasoline crack spreads and average Singapore diesel crack spreads are 89% and 57% higher compared to pre-pandemic level (2017-2019 average), respectively.
BSR’s Q1 2024 results
VND bn | Q1 2023 | Q1 2024 | YoY | % of Vietcap’s 2024F |
Brent oil price (USD/bbl) * | 82.2 | 81.8 | -1% | 99% |
Sales volume ('000 tonnes) | 1,680 | 1,610 | -4% | 26% |
Revenue | 34,066 | 30,689 | -10% | 25% |
COGS | -31,994 | -29,434 | -8% | 25% |
Gross profit | 2,072 | 1,256 | -39% | 16% |
Sales and marketing expenses | -325 | -148 | -55% | 16% |
General and admin expenses | -89 | -111 | 26% | 21% |
Operating profit | 1,658 | 996 | -40% | 16% |
Financial income | 810 | 520 | -36% | 32% |
Financial expense | -639 | -256 | -60% | 62% |
Profit before tax | 1,843 | 1,271 | -31% | 17% |
NPAT-MI reported | 1,629 | 1,144 | -30% | 17% |
|
|
| ppts change |
|
GPM | 6.1% | 4.1% | -2.0 |
|
SG&A %sales | 1.2% | 0.8% | -0.4 |
|
EBIT Margin | 4.9% | 3.2% | -1.6 |
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Reported NPAT-MI Margin | 4.8% | 3.7% | -1.1 |
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Source: BSR, Vietcap (*average prices)
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