- BSR released its Q1 2023 financial results with revenue of VND34tn (USD1.4bn; -2% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND1.6tn (USD69mn; -30% YoY & +9% QoQ). The lower revenue was mainly due to Brent oil price decreasing 15% YoY, which outweighed volume growth of 7% YoY. The significant decline in NPAT-MI was due to 1) a YoY decrease of BSR’s gasoline spread, 2) the downtrend of Brent oil prices in Q1 2023 compared to their upward trend in Q1 2022 and 3) an inventory provision expense of VND414bn. We currently forecast VND1tn of inventory provision expense for 2023.

- Q1 2023 trailed our forecast as BSR’s Q1 2023 crack spreads were not as favorable as Singapore crack spreads. BSR states this was due to higher-than-expected crude feedstock costs. In Q1 2023, the average Singapore diesel spread was USD24/bbl (+76% YoY & -25% QoQ) and the average Singapore gasoline spread was USD14/bbl (nearly flat YoY & +7x QoQ).