- We lower our target price (TP) for BSR by 1% to VND27,400/share and downgrade our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM. Our lower TP reflects (1) a 17% cut in our 2024F reported NPAT-MI forecast (2025-28F forecasts unchanged), which outweighs (2) the positive impact of rolling our TP forward to end-2025.

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to decrease 40% YoY to VND5.1tn due to 15% YoY lower sales volume because of the 5th turnaround (TA5) and ~20% YoY lower crack spreads.

- We forecast 2025F NPAT-MI to increase 32% YoY, driven by 18% YoY higher sales volume assuming BSR operates at a 100% utilization (vs 88% in 2024F), and as we expect BSR to operate at a 114% efficiency rate after turnaround (vs 110% in 2024F). Along with a projected higher gasoline spread, these factors may outweigh the expected lower diesel spread.

Powered by Froala Editor