- We cut our target price (TP) for BSR by 5% to VND18,400/share and downgrade our rating from BUY to MARKET PERFORM as the company's share price has increased by 55% YTD. Our lower TP is mainly due to a 5% reduction in our aggregate 2023-2027 NPAT-MI forecast (-4%/-12%/0%/-1%/-2% in 2023/24/25/26/27F), which is driven by higher projected maintenance costs and outsourcing expenses in 2023-2024 following H1 2023 results.

- We forecast a 54% YoY drop in reported NPAT-MI for 2023F, which is driven by plunge in crack spreads (the difference between input and output price) from 2022’s high base. We also forecast a 6% YoY decrease in reported NPAT-MI for 2024F due to lower sales volume (as a result of planned maintenance) outweighing our inventory provision writeback assumption.

- We forecast nearly flat 2023-2025F EPS. This is primarily due to an expectation for a continuing tight market that will support diesel and gasoline spreads to remain high relative to historical averages — even though they will plunge from 2022’s high base. 

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