- We raise our target price (TP) for BSR by 41% to VND27,700/share and upgrade our rating from MARKET PERFORM to BUY. Our higher TP is mainly due to (1) our 28% higher aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast (-10%/+7%/+57%/+95%/+46% in 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively), (2) the positive impact of rolling our TP forward to mid 2025, and (3) a significantly lower capex disbursement assumption for 2024. 

- Our higher aggregate NPAT-MI is driven by our 9% higher volume forecast, BSR's efficiency rate of 114% (vs our prior 97-110%), and lower projected operating cash costs following revised AGM guidance for the upgrade & expansion project's IRR of 12.9% (vs previous guidance of 10%). These outweigh higher projected financial expenses for 2024 due to our higher VND depreciation assumptions.  

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to decrease 28% YoY to VND6.1tn due to 15% YoY lower sales volume because of the 5th turnaround (TA5) and YoY lower crack spreads. We predict a Q2 loss due to a turnaround shutdown and inventory provision but expect H2 earnings to rebound, with spreads bottoming out in May and recovering from June (as per management).

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