BMP – Solid bottom-line growth driven by top-line recovery – Earnings Flash
  • 2024-10-16T00:00:00
  • Company Research

BMP announced its 9M 2024 results with net revenue of VND3,565bn (USD142.6mn; -4% YoY; 78% of our 2024F forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND760bn (USD30.4mn; -3% YoY; 74% of our 2024F forecast). In Q3 2024, net revenue was VND1,407bn (USD56.3mn; +52% YoY; +22% QoQ) and NPAT-MI was VND290bn (USD11.6mn; +39% YoY; +3% QoQ). We foresee insignificant changes to our bottom line forecasts as the 9M 2024 NPAT-MI results were broadly in line with our expectations.

  • Solid top-line recovery, slightly ahead of our forecast: In Q3 2024, BMP posted solid net revenue of VND1.4tn (USD56.3mn), marking a 22% QoQ and a 52% YoY surge from Q3 2023’s low base. We attribute this to recovery in the southern residential estate sector (BMP’s main market) and BMP’s increased promotion spending (please see below for more details).
  • GPM remains strongBMP posted Q3 2024 GPM of 43.1%, slightly lower QoQ but still elevated compared to historical levels. We attribute this solid performance to favorable input plastic prices, driven by sluggish construction demand from China which accounts for nearly half of global PVC resin demand - BMP’s key input material. In Q3 2024, average PVC resin prices rose 2% QoQ but declined 6.4% YoY. For 9M 2024, average PVC resin prices dropped 5.9% YoY.
  • Normalized SG&A surged QoQ and YoY: Normalized SG&A/Sales (i.e., SG&A excluding trade discounts) surged QoQ to 8.0% from 5.1% in Q3 2024, which we believe was due to BMP organizing an overseas trip to Thailand for over 2,000 distributors in mid-July 2024. This trip is held once every two years to reward and strengthen relationships with its distributor network. The last trip was held in 2020, per BMP’s financial statements, and the next one was delayed until this year, which we attribute to COVID-19 and difficulties in the domestic real estate market, which pressured sales volume.
  • Q3 promotion program accelerated, with a stronger focus on payment discounts over trade discounts: Financial expenses in Q3 2024 surged 119% QoQ and 180% YoY to VND71bn (USD2.8mn), solely driven by a sharp increase in payment discounts, which accounted for nearly 100% of financial expenses. In contrast, trade discounts grew only 8% QoQ and 15% YoY, with trade discounts/sales dropping to 6.3% from 11.4% in Q1 and 7.1% in Q2 2024. The total value of trade and payment discounts reached VND160bn (USD6.4mn) in Q3 2024, marking a 41% increase QoQ and 57% YoY, which we consider a key driver of the strong top-line performance for the quarter.

BMP’s 9M 2024 results

 

Q3 2023

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

QoQ

YoY

9M 2023

9M 2024

YoY

2024F

9M as % of 2024F

Net revenue

926

1,153

1,407

22%

52%

3,703

3,563

-4%

4,553

78%

Gross profit

398

506

606

20%

52%

1,526

1,537

1%

1,987

77%

SG&A expense

-134

-141

-200

43%

50%

-522

-520

0%

-673

77%

Operating profit

264

365

406

11%

53%

1,003

1,017

1%

1,314

77%

  - Financial income

32

17

20

18%

-38%

89

56

-37%

80

70%

  - Financial expenses

-26

-33

-71

119%

180%

-103

-132

29%

-118

112%

Net other income/loss

-2

1

8

703%

N.M.

-2

9

N.M.

1

936%

EBT

269

350

362

3%

35%

988

950

-4%

1,278

74%

NPAT-MI

209

280

290

3%

39%

784

760

-3%

1,022

74%

SG&A breakdown

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

134

141

200

43%

50%

522

520

0%

673

77%

Trade discounts

77

82

88

8%

15%

340

284

-16%

412

69%

Normalized SG&A*

57

59

112

91%

96%

182

236

30%

261

90%

GPM

43.0%

43.8%

43.1%



41.2%

43.1%


43.6%


SG&A exp./Sales

14.5%

12.2%

14.2%



14.1%

14.6%


14.8%


Trade discounts/Sales

8.3%

7.1%

6.3%



9.2%

8.0%


9.0%


Normalized SG&A/Sales

6.2%

5.1%

8.0%



4.9%

6.6%


5.7%


OPM

28.6%

31.7%

28.8%



27.1%

28.5%


28.9%


NPM

22.5%

24.3%

20.6%



21.2%

21.3%


22.5%


Source: BMP, Vietcap’s forecast (last updated Sep 16, 2024). *Normalized SG&A is SG&A expenses excluding trade discount.

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