BMP [OUTPERFORM +15.6%] - 2024F profit to slide from record high; high cash dividend yield

- We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating for BMP and raise our target price (TP) by 28% to VND119,100/share. BMP’s share price has rallied 31% over the last two months.

- Our higher target price is due to (1) revising up the aggregate 2024-28F NPAT-MI by 19% because of our expectation for better demand recovery and higher GPM assumptions as we believe BMP’s input plastic prices will rebound from 2023’s low, yet continue to stay suppressed due to weak demand from China; and (2) we increase our target P/E to 13.0x from 10.9x previously.

- We increase our 2024F NPAT-MI by 31% to VND991bn (USD40.5mn; -5% YoY) as we raise our 2024F GPM by 529bps, which more than offsets a 148bps increase in the SG&A expense on sales. We also maintain our 2024F sales volume growth of 10%.