- We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating for BMP despite lowering our target price (TP) by 8% to VND109,700/share as BMP’s share price has declined by 5% over the last three months.

- Our lower TP is due to (1) our more negative view for 2024F plastic pipe sales volume growth (at -10% YoY vs +10% YoY previously) because of a weaker-than-expected Q1 2024 result, and (2) slightly higher 2024F trade discount/sales (at 10.0% vs 9.8% previously) as we expect BMP to pass on lower input costs to its customers to boost demand. These changes outweigh (1) our more optimistic view for GPM (we increase 2024/25/26/27/28F GPM forecasts by 140bps/120bps/100bps/80bps/60bps), and (2) the positive impact of rolling our TP forward to mid-2025.

- We cut our 2024/25/26F NPAT-MI forecasts by 9% each year as lower sales volume and higher SG&A/Sales expectations outweigh our more positive view for GPM. However, we still expect 2024F to mark the second highest NPAT-MI year throughout BMP’s operating history.

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