- We downgrade our rating for BMP to MARKET PERFORM from BUY despite raising our target price by 10% to VND76,900/share as the company’s share price has rallied 26% over the last two months. 

- Our increased target price is due to our 9% higher aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (respective increases of 15%/7%/7%/8%/7% for 2023F/24F/25F/26F/27F) resulting from favorable input plastic prices and BMP’s better-than-expected results from production optimization.

- We increase our 2023F NPAT-MI forecast by 15% to VND713bn (USD30.2mn; +3% YoY) mainly as we raise our 2023F gross margin assumption and maintain our revenue forecast.

- We expect BMP to deliver an attractive next-12M cash dividend yield of 10.2%, which is supported by the company’s strong cash generation and net cash balance sheet. 

- BMP’s valuation looks fair at a 2023/24F P/E of 9.1/10.1x (based on our forecast) vs its five-year average TTM P/E of 7.4x.

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