The good - We believe the credit expansion cycle shall near its end starting H2 2018 with clear visibility of adverse inflationary and currency pressures. In the good scenario, the SBV gets ahead of the problem by raising credit reserve ratios, reducing the loan to deposit ceiling, asking banks to raise capital and placing a cap on loan growth at 8%. This is also accompanied by a revamp of the institutional framework for distressed asset sales, NPL management and FOLs being raised substantially.