AST [BUY +21.9%] - Business bouncing back, surpassing pre-COVID level

- We maintain our BUY rating for AST and raise our target price (TP) by 5% as we increase our 2024F/2025F/2026F NPAT-MI by 3% each on higher projected sales per store given a strong recovery in foreign arrivals in Vietnam.

- We forecast 40/46 million international passengers in 2024/2025, respectively, vs 42 million in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic.

- We estimate 2024F retail sales/store will recover to 2019’s level of VND8.0bn before hitting VND8.5bn in 2025, surging 30% and 6% YoY, respectively. In addition, AST’s store count jumped by 40% in 2019-2023.