- We upgrade our rating for ACV to OUTPERFORM from MARKET PERFORM but cut our target price (TP) by 5.7% to VND88,600/share.
- Our lower TP is mainly driven by our 1.2-ppt higher WACC, which is partially offset by (1) the positive effect from rolling our TP horizon to end-2023 vs previously mid-2023 and (2) our higher 2023-2024F NPAT-MI forecasts that are mainly due to higher-than-expected margin expansion following ACV’s efficient cost management.
- We raise our 2022/23/24F NPAT-MI forecasts by 28%/21%/7% primarily due to raising our NPM forecasts to 46%-55% from previously 42%-52%. Moreover, we raise our forecasts for the number of passengers (pax) by 3.9% in aggregate in 2022-2024F.
- For 2022F, we forecast 13.4 million international passengers (+26x YoY) and 86.6 million domestic passengers (+193% YoY) — equivalent to 32% and 116% of the respective results in 2019. We forecast 2022F revenue (excluding contributions from State-invested infrastructure assets) of VND12tn (USD484mn; +150% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND6.6tn (USD266mn; +14x YoY), which are mainly driven by strong recoveries in domestic and international passenger numbers and an unrealized FX revaluation gain.