- We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating for ACV but cut our target price (TP) by 5%. In addition, we lower our 2023F/24F/25F NPAT (excluding contributions from State-invested assets) by 4%/4%/3%, respectively, which is mainly due to lower projected passenger numbers and higher bad debt provisions.

- We maintain our forecast of 32 million international passengers in 2023 but cut our 2024F/2025F from 43 million/47 million to 40 million/46 million, respectively. We note that Vietnam welcomed 42 million international passengers in 2019. We expect a slower recovery in international passenger numbers due to the global economic slowdown.

- However, we continue to expect improvements in H2 2023 vs H1 2023 as H2 is a high season for international arrivals in Vietnam. In 7M 2023, foreign and Chinese arrivals reached 68% and 26% of their respective pre-COVID levels. 

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