- 2024-04-26T00:00:00
- Company Research
- ACV released its Q1 2024 results with revenue and PBT adjusted for FX gain/losses increasing 19% and 27%, respectively, fulfilling 25% and 27% of our respective full-year forecasts. We foresee upside potential to our forecasts due to stronger-than-expected recovery in international passengers.
- In Q1 2024, ACV’s international passengers recovered 47% YoY to 10.4 million, on track to exceed our full-year forecast of 40 million. Comparing Q1 2024 with Q1 2019, the total percentage of foreign arrivals recovered to 97%, while Chinese arrivals achieved 70%.
- However, domestic passengers dropped 15% YoY to 17.5 million due to both aircraft repairs by domestic airlines and weak consumer sentiment. We expect these issues to be alleviated going forward, but see potential downside risk to our current 2024F of 81 million passengers.
- In Q1 2024, ACV recognized VND175bn of bad debt provisions, resulting in a total provision balance of VND3.9tn. This represents a sharp decline vs Q4 2023’s VND1.1tn. We have already factored VND5.4tn of provision expenses for the 2023-2025 period in our forecast and assume ACV will reclaim most of this amount in 2026—2028.
- ACV made revaluation FX gains of USD3mn in Q1 2024 vs a USD31mn loss in Q1 2023. The JPY/VND exchange rate depreciated 6.4% in Q1 2024, benefiting ACV’s JPY debt load.
ACV’s Q1 2024 results
VND bn | Q1 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | YoY | Q1 as % of 2024F | 2024F |
Net revenue | 4,728 | 5,047 | 5,644 | 19% | 25% | 22,984 |
Aeronautical revenue | 3,913 | 3,429 | 4,655 | 19% | 29% | 16,090 |
Take-off and landing fees | 613 | 639 | 692 | 13% | 28% | 2,471 |
Non-aeronautical revenue | 549 | 979 | 666 | 21% | 15% | 4,361 |
ACV’s net revenue * | 4,462 | 4,408 | 5,321 | 19% | 26% | 20,514 |
Gross profit | 2,938 | 2,697 | 3,600 | 23% | 26% | 14,062 |
SG&A | -585 | -1,410 | -498 | -15% | 17% | -2,988 |
EBIT | 2,353 | 1,287 | 3,102 | 32% | 28% | 11,074 |
Financial income | 416 | 648 | 479 | 15% | 29% | 1,658 |
Financial expenses | -793 | -44 | -19 | -98% | 3% | -584 |
Net income from associates | 52 | 32 | 61 | 18% | 19% | 323 |
Net other income/expenses | 3 | 18 | 6 | 136% | 16% | 38 |
PBT | 2,030 | 1,941 | 3,629 | 79% | 29% | 12,510 |
PBT adj. for FX gains/losses | 2,801 | 1,722 | 3,548 | 27% | 27% | 13,029 |
NPAT | 1,635 | 1,565 | 2,921 | 79% | 28% | 10,266 |
NPAT-MI | 1,633 | 1,561 | 2,917 | 79% | 28% | 10,236 |
ACV’s NPAT-MI | 1,301 | 1,310 | 2,594 | 99% | 29% | 9,040 |
State’s NPAT-MI ** | 332 | 251 | 324 | -2% | 27% | 1,196 |
D&A | 557 | 590 | 586 | 5% | 23% | 2,565 |
EBITDA | 2,910 | 1,877 | 3,688 | 27% | 27% | 13,640 |
GPM | 62.1% | 53.4% | 63.8% |
|
| 61.18% |
SG&A margin | 12.4% | 27.9% | 8.8% |
|
| 13.00% |
EBITDA margin | 61.6% | 37.2% | 65.3% |
|
| 59.34% |
NPM * | 31.5% | 29.7% | 46.0% |
|
| 39.33% |
Source: ACV, Vietcap forecast. Note: (*) Excluding contribution from State-invested aviation assets;
(**) NPAT-MI from assets owned by the State (State-invested aviation assets) — the State authorizes ACV to manage these assets (including runways).
ACV’s accounts receivable as of Q1 2024 (VND bn)
VND bn | Total | Gross doubtful receivable | Net doubtful receivable |
All clients | 8,837 | 7,204 | 3,642 |
Vietjet Air | 2,781 | 1,963 | 1,753 |
Bamboo Airways | 2,185 | 2,185 | 0 |
Vietnam Airlines | 2,969 | 2,154 | 1,889 |
Pacific Airlines | 902 | 902 | 0 |
Source: ACV
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